Is This Campaign Year Confusing You? - You can't make this stuff up.

Next week, Micah Norris will write a guest blog post on Profitable Passions: Making Money Doing What You Love.

INTRODUCTION:

Greetings. I hope everyone had a safe and enjoyable Labor Day weekend. Does this election cycle seem to be in turmoil? Why not. Everything is in chaos, both domestically and globally. Although we are constantly told things are improving, no one sees or feels it. Prices continue to rise, yet the numbers say things are better. Numbers are only as accurate as the amount of information reported, leading to confusion and uncertainty. With the job numbers being inaccurate, we must wonder, where is the truth about all of this? Hence, all the confusion.

The campaigns for President this year are equally confusing. Biden's in, then he is out. Kamala has one platform, and then she flips and changes. She speaks many words and says nothing. No one knows what her economic policies are. Who knows who to believe anymore? This leads to further confusion. Kamela did one 16-minute interview, which told people nothing useful compared to Trump's numerous interviews and town halls. The news media also flips back and forth. The economists tell us one thing; the politicians tell us another. Therefore, how do we wade through all this confusion? Tomorrow night, the 10th., at 9 pm, is their first debate. Maybe it's their only debate. We can only hope that ABC will step up, run a fair debate, and ask the critical questions the American people need to know the answers to.

For ABC to do it any differently could significantly affect its credibility in the eyes of the viewers. A stone could say it's a marshmallow all day long, but in the end, it is still a stone. I ask myself, why is Kamela Harries changing her positions on so many issues when she has had 3 1/2 years to influence change? Will she follow through if elected? None of us are required to be like any candidate as a person. In reality, as a person, we can dislike them. However, we must vote for the individual that will do the job and get it done. I always say we do not have to have dinner, socialize, or even sleep with them. However, we must believe they will do the job for our country and its citizens. Never forget that. Moving on.

WHY IS THIS ELECTION CAMPAIGN YEAR SO CONFUSING?:

As the dust settles on previous electoral cycles, the landscape of the current election campaign year appears more convoluted than ever. With such diverse candidates, shifting political landscapes, and an avalanche of information (and misinformation), voters are struggling and confused. Candidates' records, pros, cons, truth, lies, and who knows what else. Add the social media chatter into the mix and the opposing media views, and we wonder why it's a show from the depths of God knows what.

The Democratic party is experiencing internal strife, characterized by varying ideological factions. Progressives and moderates within their parties are engaged in a tug-of-war over the party's future direction. In contrast, the Republican party faces rifts between establishment figures and maga movement, Trump-aligned supporters.

Debates have become spectacles, making it challenging for voters to discern clear positions. The back-and-forth rhetoric between the candidate's voices often leads to superficial engagements instead of substantial discussions on policy, leaving voters more confused than informed. The rise of digital media has transformed how campaigns operate, but it has also contributed to the confusion. The narrative around "fake news" continues to pose challenges. This election year has seen a notable increase in the spread of disinformation, from deepfakes to manipulated graphics. Campaigns themselves often resort to tactics that blur the lines between fact and propaganda, making it difficult for voters to determine what is reliable and what is not.

This election cycle has underscored the complexities of identity politics. Voters increasingly seek candidates who reflect their values and experiences, leading to a policy environment rich with nuanced issues. Individuals from various racial, economic, and gender backgrounds compete in record numbers, spotlighting essential topics such as systemic inequality, access to healthcare, and education reform. While this progress is commendable, it also complicates the traditional political narrative, making it hard for voters to prioritize the most urgent issues. However, all the polls show that the border and the economy are number one and two on the list.

The intertwining of various issues—such as gender, race, and economic status—has led to a more intersectional campaign approach. However, this creates an environment where understanding policies may require a sophisticated grasp of these intersections, leaving many voters disoriented. Many voters are not happy with any of the candidates. As they say, "Who is the better of both evils?" However, through this, there are always the diehard Democrats and Republicans, or "The MAGA Movement." The use of celebrities during campaigns to try to capitalize on their popularity is ridiculous. They will not be running the country. Many are unsure who has been running the country for the past 3 1/2 years.

THE POLITICAL ATMOSPHERE:

Candidates are often accused of being too extreme or not adhering to their party's core principles, leading to frequent shifts in strategy to mitigate voter backlash. As a result, platforms can appear inconsistent or contradictory, creating further confusion among the electorate.

Super PACs and other political action committees have increased money's political influence, complicating candidates' messages. Often, the policy positions touted by candidates are shaped or influenced by these groups and donors, creating a murky relationship that can puzzle voters trying to understand candidates' actual stances. If elected, how do these large donors get their due? What needs to be compromised? Whatever it is, the cost is passed on to the taxpayer.

If all of that isn't enough, this election year is characterized by unprecedented global challenges, including climate change, economic uncertainty, a shifting geopolitical landscape, and international conflicts. Most are wondering what is still left to come before the changing of the guard.

The simultaneity of crises requires candidates to address various complex issues, often leading to vague or overly broad promises. Voters may feel overwhelmed trying to comprehend candidates' strategies across multiple significant problems, adding to the overall confusion. Remember, NOT ALL CAMPAIGN PROMISES CAN HAPPEN ON DAY ONE. Many require the approval of Congress and the Senate, which can result in a more challenging task and numerous modifications to the initial promise.

As inflation rates and economic disparities shift, candidates' economic platforms fluctuate. The mixed messages can leave voters unsure of which candidate offers viable solutions for financial stability. However, in Kamala's case, parts of her economic plan have been tried in various other countries, and it has consistently failed. Why should we believe it will succeed this time? At best, it's a poor plan. My question is, where has Kamela Harries been in the past 3 1/2 years? She has been part of every decision-making process that has lost American lives, added to Federal spending, increased inflation, and supported it all. Now, she claims she will fix it. Well, if you thought it was wrong, to begin with, why did you support trillions in spending by being the tie-breaking vote on this spending? LOOK AT THE CANDIDATES RECORDS PEOPLE. Do not be fooled.

CONFUSION:

No wonder most voters are confused. With early voting starting soon and only three months till the election, and maybe only one debate, believe it or not, it's still early, and anything can happen. Political polls continue to fluctuate, and many people rely on them. I am not a big fan of polls because there are many variables. A larger sample size generally leads to more reliable results, as it reduces the margin of error. However, practical constraints often limit how many people can be surveyed. Random sampling is ideal for ensuring that any demographic is fairly represented, but many polls use stratified or non-random methods that may bias results. Phrasing questions can significantly influence responses; leading or ambiguous questions can skew results. Poll results vary dramatically depending on when they are conducted, influenced by current events, candidate performance, or media coverage.

While political polls offer valuable insights, several factors can compromise their accuracy. Polls often attempt to represent a cross-section of the population, but certain groups may be under or over-sampled, leading to skewed results. For instance, younger voters, minorities, or those with atypical voting habits may not be adequately represented. Pollsters must carefully consider demographic makeup to craft a representative sample.

Nonresponse can lead to bias even when a poll achieves a valid sample of respondents. If specific demographics are less likely to respond, the final results may not accurately reflect the entire group's sentiments. Techniques like follow-ups or oversampling certain categories can mitigate this issue but not eliminate it.

Public opinion is fluid; individuals may rapidly change their positions or preferences in response to new information, debates, or scandals. Because of this volatility, a poll taken weeks or even days before an election can quickly become outdated. An attempt to correct this comes from having many polls by many pollsters regularly. We also must be careful which polls we watch. Some are more highly respected and accurate than others.

We live in a world surrounded by technology, and the internet provides a wealth of information. However, we must again be careful about what is accurate and what is not. Social media platforms amplify voices and opinions, changing how people engage with political issues. Online sentiment may not translate into traditional polling methods, leading to discrepancies between poll results and voter turnout.

Polls can create a bandwagon effect that influences undecided voters. The perception that a candidate is leading can sway decisions, potentially creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. This phenomenon raises ethical questions about the role of media in reporting polls without context. Historically, polls have had mixed success in predicting electoral outcomes. A notable case is the 1936 Literary Digest poll, which incorrectly predicted the victory of Alf Landon over Franklin D. Roosevelt due to sampling bias favoring wealthier, more conservative voters. More recently, the 2016 U.S. presidential election saw many polls predicting a win for Hillary Clinton, only for Donald Trump to emerge victorious. These failures have led to calls for more rigorous standards in polling practices.

As polling continues to evolve, several methodologies have emerged to enhance accuracy. Mixed-mode surveys combine methods, like phone and online surveys, which can help reach a more diverse demographic. Probability-based sampling leverages techniques like stratified random sampling to enhance representativeness, especially in a varied electorate.

Use of Analytics uses data and analytics that can identify trends and shifts in public sentiment, allowing pollsters to adjust methodologies accordingly. Transparency by polling organizations that disclose their methods, sample sizes, and other relevant information fosters trust and provides for better scrutiny of their results.

There is undoubtedly a great deal of information in this post that probably adds to your confusion, but it is pretty easy to navigate when choosing. In my case, I believe in looking at the candidates' records. The reason I do this is because this information is factual. It is not opinion-based. A candidate's past performance and choices usually indicate what they will do in the future. Why? Because that is their platform. What they believe in, regardless of what they say that they think we want to hear..

Once I review a candidate's record, what they voted for or against, what bills they presented and supported, and their record of success, I can add what I hear in debates, polls, and other forums and formulate my opinion. I NEVER FORMULATE MY OPINION BASED ON WHAT OTHERS SAY. You know the saying: "Opinions are like rear ends. Everyone has one." Doing this takes a little effort, but much of this information is easy to obtain. Ladies and gentlemen, this election is for the President of the United States of America, a country that is struggling in many ways and on different fronts. This election will have a tremendous impact on our future. It is that important.

IN CLOSING:

The confusion surrounding this election campaign year can be attributed to a political system in disarray, the importance of so many issues, and people wanting a change. For voters, the challenge lies in discerning reliable information amid the chaos and identifying candidates whose values and policies resonate with their beliefs. As we navigate this turbulent political landscape, it becomes imperative for voters to engage critically with the information available, participate in the process, and remain open to understanding the complexities of the electoral process.

Never look at a voting ballot, close your eyes, and let your finger fall randomly on the page. Know WHO, WHAT, and WHY you are voting for someone. This method applies to any election. Not just for a presidential election. As in the case of every election, we all have to live with the choices we make. Good, bad, or indifferent. Never forget that.

I hope you enjoyed my post. Please subscribe to my blog, YouTube, or Vimeo Channels. Thank you.

Please feel free to leave comments, or if you have a topic you would like me to discuss, you can email me at crondina@caesarrondinaauthor.com. Thank you.

Be safe, stay well, and focus on being happy. And remember to always: